Unless the voltage on the string exceeds the reverse voltage of the LED, putting it in backwards will not harm the LED, the string simply will not light. You can also use standard diodes to discover the polarity as well. I would solder two power LEDs in series (same polarity) and use that to discover the polarity required for the LED. The reason for two is that power or rectifier diodes have less voltage drop than LEDs and two of them in series increases the voltage drop. A commercial string should not be pushing the LED forward voltage that close to their limits but diodes are cheap so why take chances. Power diodes have a much higher reverse voltage capability and will not be harmed by putting them in backwards, the string will simply not light. When the string does light, then the polarity seen on the diodes is what you will need for the LED. Make sure to use the same color as the one being replaced to keep the string voltage within spec.